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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still